Key policies and governance approach

Madagascar's policies and governance approach on climate change highlight its ambition to fight climate change. Madagascar has put in place an ambitious political framework which includes the National Adaptation Action Program, the National Policy on Climate Change, the planned Nationally determined contribution (NDC) of 2015, which was then converted into NDC in September 2016, and the three National Communications (NC). Madagascar is also a signatory to both the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol and ratified the Paris Agreement on September 21, 2016.

According to the Decree No. 2015-092 of March 5th, 2015, the Ministry of the Environment, of Ecology, the Sea and Forest (MEEMF) is responsible for the implementation and coordination of climate related actions, as well as the mainstreaming of climate change issues in social and economic sectors. The National Bureau of Climate Change Coordination (BNCCC) of MEEMF ensures the role of coordinating, facilitating, supervising and monitoring of the productive delivery of all the measures provided within the NDCs. The BNCCC works together with sectorial ministries, the National Climate Change Committee, sectorial and regional environmental offices, and others non-governmental actors operating in the field of climate change [3].

In its NDCs, Madagascar is committed to both contribute to both mitigate climate change, and to reduce climate change vulnerability and promote adaptation measures. As for mitigation, despite its very low responsibility in terms of GHG emissions, Madagascar aims to reduce its emissions to 30 MtCO2 by 2030, compared to the Business-as-Usual scenario; and increase the absorptions in the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector to about 61 MtCO2 [3].  To achieve this, Madagascar has identified the following actions: strengthening renewable energies (hydraulic and solar), reforestation, enhanced monitoring of forests and grasslands, climate-smart rice cultivation techniques, an increase in hydropower and solar power, sustainable cooking stoves and energy efficiency among others [5] [9].

Madagascar is also committed to adaptation measures,  particularly those with the impacts of climatic hazards that mostly affect the country, whose intensities are exacerbated by climate warming observed both at the national and global levels. Adaptation measures were frameworked by the Politique Nationale de Lutte contre le Changement Climatique created in 2010. This national policy has as first strategicaim to “Strengthen adaptation to climate change, considering Madagascar’s realistic needs”. The several adaptation measures Madagascar is planning to take between 2020 and 2030 include: effective implementation of multi-hazard early warning systems,  widespread application of Resilient Agriculture Integrated Models in major agricultural centres,  sustainable and integrated water resources management, implementation of ecosystem-based adaptation measures and restoration of natural habitats among others[3].

Successes and remaining challenges

Given Madagascar's climate sensitive structure, the effective implementation of climate change adaptation and mitigation plans is paramount. Madagascar’s willingness to tackle climate change has led to the existence of many policy framework documents and legal instruments conducive to the implementation of actions to cope with climate change. The country will carry out efforts for effective implementation of existing regulatory instruments, as well as to elaborate new policies in order to support the implementation of actions linked to the national contributions[3].

Yet, like most developing countries, climate finance is a major issue for the country. Very little domestic funding is available for climate change, and current domestic funding is insufficient to implement long-term adaptation and mitigation solutions. The investment costs for the implementation of Madagascar's NDC priorities are estimated at around USD 42.099 billion, more than half of which would be allocated to adaptation actions[8]. Of the total amount of investments required, Madagascar indicated that only around 4% could be covered by national resources[8].  In 2021, the resources mobilized for climate change include $ 69.9 million from the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and $ 99.2 million from the Global Environment Facility (GEF), with almost no private sector participation [10].

Also, the institutional and regulatory framework for climate change and low-carbon development has been strengthened in Madagascar, but climate vulnerability is still  high, while adaptation to climate change remains low [10]. Madagascar lacks the infrastructure (roads, energy, water supply, etc.) necessary to manage and adapt to climate-related risks and disasters, and its agricultural sector is very vulnerable to climate risks[10]. Besides, according to the World Bank adaptation studies, current adaptation actions in Madagascar lack certain specific adaptation needs identified by the National Adaptation Action Program (PANA). These needs are highlighted by gaps in implementation, which are reforestation initiatives beyond protected areas, public health initiatives, gender, and community-based adaptation initiatives [2]. Madagascar also published a vulnerability and adaptive capacity assessment in 2015 [11]. Given the current cascading impacts of climate change in the Southern part of Madagascar, efforts should be made to update this assessment.

If no action is taken, in the business-as-usual scenario, Madagascar’s total emissions will reach 214 MtCO2 in 2030. Total absorptions will decrease to 92 MtCO2 in 2030, which will change Madagascar’s status from carbon sink to an emitting source in 2030[3].

Initiatives and Development Plans

Since 2016, Madagascar has had a roadmap for its National Adaptation Plan (PAN) which integrates climate change into a sectoral approach. In 2019, Madagascar developed the Methodological Guide for the Integration of Climate Resilience into Regional Development Plans (PRD) and Regional Land Use Plans (SRAT), as well as the adaptation integration guide to climate change in land use planning standards through an Environmental Assessment Approach Strategy (EES) under the auspices of the National Environment Agency (ONE) [10].

In 2021, climate change was included in sectoral strategies for water resources, industrial development and waste. Madagascar is also committed to helping to mitigate climate change, as well as to reduce vulnerability to climate change and to promote adaptation measures[3] .

For it’s LULUCF sector, Madagascar is developing a diversified reforestation program with aim to increae the total areas under forest cover, with an indigenous species reforestation program of 270,000 ha[3].

Goals and Ambitions

As for mitigation, by 2030, Madagascar aims to reduce approximately 30 MtCO2 of its emissions of GHG, representing 14% of national emissions, compared to the BAU scenario, with projections based of GHG inventory from year 2000 to 2010.  

As a result of the various adaptation measures Madagascar is expecting to achieve  stabilisation of the case of human casualties due to cyclones and reduction of the occurrence of hunger and food insecurity events associated with drought periods by 2025. Madagascar also aims to assure national food security through a large-scale implementation of Resilient Agriculture. By 2030, Madagascar is expecting to significantly decrease the proportion of people, particularly in Southern Madagascar, suffering from starvation. Madagascar will also restore 55,000 ha of forests and mangroves by 2030.  However, the objectives remain conditioned by financial support from global partners (conditional contributions)[3].