Mean annual temperature of Ethiopia has increased by 1.3°C between 1960 and 2006, an average rate of 0.28°C per decade. The mean monthly temperature is expected to increase by 1.8°C by the 2050s and by 3.7°C by end of the century, under a high-emission scenario [1]. The frequency of ‘hot’ days and nights will increase in projected future climates with ‘hot’ days that will occur on 19–40% of days by the 2060s, and 26–69% of days by the 2090s.
Climate variability is already negatively impacting the livelihoods of the Ethiopia’s population. Drought is considered to be the single most destructive climate-related natural hazard in Ethiopia while the country is also exposed to other extreme weather events such as floods, volcanoes and earthquakes [1].
Estimates suggest climate change may reduce Ethiopia’s GDP up to 10% by 2045, largely through drought-induced impacts on agricultural productivity. In fact, in the country, economy depends largely on the extent of annual weather variability. Recent droughts have reduced the country’s GDP by 1% to 4%, and rain-induced soil erosion has been estimated to reduce GDP by approximately an additional 1% [1].
Furthermore, Ethiopia, as an agrarian economy, is amongst the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts, as it lacks access to adaptive capacity improving components like information sources, capital and technology. Due to the recurrent decline in crop yields, loss of livelihood assets and opportunities, the impacts of climate change are extremely sensible at rural smallholder farmers’ context [2]. In Ethiopia, the pastoral and agro-pastoral communities, that covers 12% of the population, keep livestock in drought prone arid and semi-arid regions [3]. Decline in livestock population and productivity in these regions is thus linked to the recurrent climate change [4].
Ethiopia is one of the world’s lowest emitters of GHG emissions with an estimated contribution of 0.04% of global emissions [5]. In Ethiopia CO2 emission per capita in 2018 were 149 kg, which is much lower than the average for Sub-Saharan Africa (764 kg) as well as other low-income countries (237 kg) [6]. In Ethiopia, agriculture is the main sector contributing to greenhouse gas emissions, followed by the land use and forestry sector (LUCF) [5].
Ethiopia has a high degree of vulnerability to climate change, due to reliance on rainfed agriculture and natural resources. Moreover, vulnerability is exacerbated due to the country’s high level of poverty and its dependence on key sectors most likely effected by climate change: water, tourism, and forestry, addition to agriculture. While the country is at high-risk to natural disasters, such as flooding as well as drought, its topographic diversity and the sensitivity of some segments of the population to climate change, makes it even more vulnerable. Additionally, non-climate stressors such as inadequate infrastructure to handle the increasing population are also impacting the vulnerability to natural disaster sensitivity and climate change [7].
KEY POLICIES AND GOVERNANCE APPROACH
The Environment, Forest, and Climate Change Commission (EFCCC; formerly the Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change) is the lead federal institution and agency of the country tasked with managing Ethiopia’s environment. It has to oversee the technical implementation of the Climate- Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) Strategy launched in 2011.
The Ministry of Finance (MoF) is another important institution on the topic, which is overseeing public finance efforts and it is responsible for financial and budgetary aspects of the implementation of the CRGE. In order to carry out the delivery of the CRGE Strategy [8].
The main strategies and plan which Ethiopia was working on in the past decade were: (i) the climate-resilient green economy strategy (2011), (ii) the Second Growth and Transformation Plan (2015-2020), (iii) the Perspective Development Plan (2021-2030) and the National Forest Sector Development Programme (2018-2028) [8]. The climate-resilient green economy strategy aims to keep greenhouse gas emissions low and build climate resilience, while achieving middle-income status by 2025. (Source CAT)
Moreover, in 2019, Ethiopia launched its National Adaptation Plan (NAP-ETH). The plan builds on ongoing efforts to address climate change in the country’s development policy framework, including the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy and the second Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP II), as well as sectoral climate resilience strategies and regional and municipal adaptation plans. Its goal is to reduce vulnerability to the impacts of climate change by building adaptive capacity and resilience. NAP-ETH aims to strengthen holistic integration of climate change adaptation in Ethiopia’s long-term development pathway, supported by effective institutions and governance structures, finance for implementation and capacity development, and strengthened systems for disaster risk management and integration among different sectors. The plan and its implementation are guided by the principles of participation, coherent interventions, stakeholder empowerment, gender sensitivity, equitable implementation and partnership [9] .
The vulnerability of the agricultural sector to climate change has resulted the Ethiopian government to design strategies for climate change mitigation. Mitigation and adaptation activities have been already included in the sectoral plans and various initiatives such as the Agriculture Growth Program (AGP), the Livestock Master Plan (LMP), Livestock & Fisheries Sector Plan (LFSP) and the Sustainable Land Management Programme (SLM), which are all included in the National Adaptation Plan [5].
SUCCESSES AND REMAINING CHALLENGES
Over the last two decades, the growth of Ethiopia’s economy is among the fastest growing economies in the world. Ethiopia’s public investment-led development strategy focuses on increased agricultural productivity, industrial output, export revenue, and public infrastructure. The strategy has generated tangible results in terms of economic growth and improved social conditions including significant reductions in rural and urban poverty.
Ethiopia will need to continue to implement its development strategies and address significant climate change threats. The country’s ecological and agricultural systems are fragile and vulnerable to rising temperatures and changing weather patterns that are likely to impact critical seasonal rainfall levels. This is compounded by population pressure and stretched natural resources. The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) clearly recognizes the negative consequences of climate in-action to the country’s ongoing and future development and has therefore prioritized climate resilience in its transition towards a green, sustainable growth model. Indeed, building a CRGE is a crosscutting pillar of the GoE’s development agenda for poverty eradication through broad-based, accelerated, and sustained economic growth [10] .
The country however is constrained by the necessary financial capital and it needs to build its institutional and human capacity to effectively implement its development plan and build a CRGE.
The country however is constrained by the necessary financial resources. The financial resources required to implement the updated NDC in the next 10 years is estimated at USD 316 billion and the mitigation interventions require around USD 275 billion. As for the emission reduction target, 20% of the total estimated finance is unconditional, while 80% is conditional and should be received from international climate finance sources. In addition, significant capacity building and technology transfer efforts are needed. Ethiopia is also keen on working with the private sector to address the challenges of climate change, especially through participation to carbon market opportunities [5].
Ethiopia’s conditional target to reduce the GHG emissions by 2030 is rated to be insufficient and not in line with the with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit. It is important for Ethiopia to strengthen its updated conditional target further and to receive additional support to achieve this target [11].
INITIATIVES AND DEVELOPMENT PLANS
Based on the experiences gained in the past from implementing Growth and Transformation Plans GTP I (2010-2015) and GTP II (2016-2020), and the Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy, the current government has also launched its Ten Years Prospective Development Plan (2021-2030) as a “Pathway to Prosperity”. In the plan, building climate resilient green economy remains one of the strategic pillars. Increasing basic development efforts to fight land degradation and to reduce pollutions, improving productivity and reducing GHG emissions, increasing forest protection and development, increasing production of electricity from renewable sources for domestic use and for export, and focusing on modern and energy saving technologies are the main components identified in building climate resilient green economy [12]. The Green Legacy Initiative (2019-2024) for example aims at planting 20 billion seedlings by 2024, and already 16.7 billion seedlings have been planted by mobilizing the public in the last three years (2019-2021) [13].
Ethiopia submitted its updated Nationally-Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC in July 2021, building and supporting other several climate and development policy initiatives including the first NDC (2016), the CRGE mid-term review, the emerging 2050 Long Term Low Emission Development Strategy and the above mentioned Green Legacy Initiative, as well as the Ethiopia’s 10YDP [5].
GOALS AND AMBITIONS
Ethiopia intends to limit its net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2030 to 145 Mt CO2e or lower. This would constitute a 255 MtCO2e reduction from the projected ‘business-as-usual’ (BAU) emissions in 2030 or a 68.8% reduction from the BAU scenario in 2030, mainly through reductions in its land sector emissions. The reduction is conditional on international support, with an unconditional component, a 14% reduction below BAU, which Ethiopia will undertake with its own resources. The aim is to achieve the targets mainly (around 85% of total reductions) through reductions in its land-use and forestry sector emissions [5].
Ethiopia also intends to undertake adaptation initiatives to reduce the vulnerability of its population, environment and economy to the adverse effects of climate change, based on its Climate Resilient Green Economy Strategy (CRGE) [14].
- Ethiopia needs to continue to implement its development strategies and address significant climate change threats by building up on past experiences. The country‘s ecological and agricultural systems are fragile and vulnerable to rising temperatures and changing weather patterns that are likely to impact critical seasonal rainfall levels. This is compounded by population pressure and stretched natural resources.
The Government of Ethiopia (GoE):
- Recognizes the negative consequences of climate in-action to the country’s ongoing and future development and has therefore prioritized climate resilience in its transition towards a green, sustainable growth model.
- Recognizes that building a CRGE is a crosscutting pillar of the GoE’s development agenda for poverty eradication through broad-based, accelerated, and sustained economic growth.
The country however is constrained by the necessary financial capital and it needs to build its institutional and human capacity to effectively implement its development plan and build a CRGE.
[1] Climate Risk Profile: Ethiopia (2020): The World Bank Group.
[2] Thornton, P.K., Ericksen, P.J., Herrero, M., Challinor, A.J., 2014. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review. Global Change Biology (2014) 20, 3313–3328, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12581. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1111/gcb.12581.
[3] Mihiretu, A., Okoyo, E.N., Lemma, T. (2021). Causes, indicators and impacts of climate change: understanding the public discourse in Goat based agro-pastoral livelihood zone, Ethiopia. Heliyon 7, e06529. https://www.cell.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2405-8440%2821%2900632-0.
[4] Berhe, M., Hoag, D., Tesfay, G., Tadesse, T., Oniki, S., Kagatsume, M., Keske, C.M.H., 2017. The impacts of adaptation to climate change on income of households in rural Ethiopia. Pastoralism 7 (12), 112–117.
[5] Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia (2021). Updated Nationally Determined Contribution.
[6] World Bank Data (2021). CO2 emissions (metric ton per capita)-Ethiopia.
[7] World Bank (2021). Climate Risk Profile: Ethiopia.
[8] Climate Action Tracker, 2020. Climate Governance in Ethiopia.
[9] FDRE (2019). Ethiopia’s Climate resilient Green Economy: National Adaptation Plan.
[10] Global Green Growth Institute (2021). Ethiopia: Context.
[11] Climate Action Tracker Website (2021). Ethiopia.
[13] Ethiopian Monitor: Daily News. Green Legacy 2021: Ethiopia Plants over 6.7 billion Tree Seedlings.